Copa del Rey, round 1 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla
Poblense — AD Ceuta FC
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1:2Came true
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, AD Ceuta FC to win (58%), came true.
AD Ceuta FC are clear favourites: 58% against 19% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AD Ceuta FC are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- AD Ceuta FC are 165 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- AD Ceuta FC: 3 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Poblense — AD Ceuta FC What is xG? | 1.0–1.9 | |
| Poblense not to lose | 42% | |
| AD Ceuta FC not to lose | 81% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Poblense
- Poblense goals
- AD Ceuta FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Match events
- 17′Santi Riveron · Poblense1:0
- 79′Adrián Lapeña · AD Ceuta FC1:1
- 90′Jordi Escobar · AD Ceuta FC1:2
Form
- 25.10away · Cádiz1:3
- 18.10Real Oviedo1:2
- 10.10Sabadell1:2
- 04.10away · Castellón1:1
- 26.09Real Sociedad B3:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Next match
- AD Ceuta FCSporting Gijón1 November · Segunda Division3529362The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
Copa del Rey on the same day
- 1219682The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:1.3.1
- 2024562The most likely outcome came true: 21:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 0:2.2.9
- 714802The most likely outcome came true: 20:6Final score 0:6. Model's score: 0:4.3.4
- 2525502The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3026442The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 815782The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.3
- San Sebastian de los ReyesCD Coriafinal 1:2 (90 min 1:1)4326311The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 1421652The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:3.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →