Copa del Rey, round 1 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos
Numancia — Real Oviedo
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In short
Final score 3:3: the model's most likely outcome, Real Oviedo to win (68%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 68% fails in about 32 matches out of 100 on average.
Real Oviedo are clear favourites: 68% against 12% for the opponent, draw 19%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Oviedo are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Real Oviedo are 262 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Numancia — Real Oviedo What is xG? | 0.8–2.2 | |
| Numancia not to lose | 32% | |
| Real Oviedo not to lose | 88% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Numancia
- Numancia goals
- Real Oviedo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 43′Aitor Aranzabe · Numancia1:0
- 57′Iker Leon · Numancia2:0
- 74′Alexandru Ișfan · Real Oviedo2:1
- 76′Mikel Goti · Real Oviedo2:2
- 87′Jonatan Gonzalez · Numancia3:2
- 89′Mikel Goti · Real Oviedo3:3
Form
- 02.12Mallorca2:3
- 29.10Arenas Getxo3:0
- 30.10Sporting Gijón0:1
- 21.12Sporting Gijón0:3
- 13.11away · San Juan2:0
- 24.10away · Almería2:2
- 18.10away · AD Ceuta FC2:1
- 12.10Eibar3:1
- 02.10away · Eldense1:4
- 27.09Sporting Gijón2:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Next match
- Real OviedoLas Palmas2 November · Segunda Division5426201The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
Copa del Rey on the same day
- 2024562The most likely outcome came true: 21:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 0:2.2.9
- 714802The most likely outcome came true: 20:6Final score 0:6. Model's score: 0:4.3.4
- 2525502The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3026442The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 815782The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.3
- 1923582The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
- San Sebastian de los ReyesCD Coriafinal 1:2 (90 min 1:1)4326311The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 1421652The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:3.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →