Brazilian Serie A, round 35 · Thursday, 19 November, 03:30 (UTC+3)

Corinthians — Botafogo

Model prediction for 19 November

Corinthians53%

Draw27%

Botafogo20%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Corinthians are clear favourites: 53% against 20% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

By the strength ratings Corinthians are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Corinthians are 82 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Corinthians — No. 18, 36 pts; Botafogo — No. 13, 39 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Corinthians 0 wins, Botafogo 3, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Corinthians — Botafogo What is xG?		1.6–0.9
Corinthians not to lose		80%
Botafogo not to lose		47%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		52%
Both teams to score: no		48%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Corinthians
Corinthians goals
Botafogo goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Corinthians	Botafogo
Goals scored per match	1.1	0.8
Goals conceded per match	1.9	1.6
xG per match	1.46	1.10
Opponents’ xG	1.43	1.22
Shots	15.7	14.8
On target	4.7	5.0
Corners	5.1	5.3
Cards	2.7	1.6
Possession, %	54	49

Averages per match: Corinthians — the last 10, Botafogo — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Corinthians

31.10Mirassol2:0
25.10away · Vasco da Gama2:3
20.10Vitória1:1
11.10away · Palmeiras1:4
08.10away · Internacional1:2

Botafogo

29.10away · Remo1:2
24.10away · Internacional0:3
18.10Chapecoense1:0
12.10away · Coritiba1:1
08.10Vasco da Gama1:2

Head to head

17.05.2026Botafogo — Corinthians3:1
30.11.2025Corinthians — Botafogo2:2
27.07.2025Botafogo — Corinthians1:1
15.09.2024Botafogo — Corinthians2:1
02.06.2024Corinthians — Botafogo0:1

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
12	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39–48	-9	40
13	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45–53	-8	39
14	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38–42	-4	38
17, Relegation	Grêmio	33	9	10	14	37–44	-7	37
18, Relegation	Corinthians	33	9	9	15	36–42	-6	36
19, Relegation	Remo	33	6	11	16	36–51	-15	29

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

01:30
CoritibaSantospreliminary
302941
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
02:00
RemoChapecoensepreliminary
582517
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
02:30
FlamengoAthletico Paranaensepreliminary
77167
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
02:30
CruzeiroPalmeiraspreliminary
402931
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
03:30
GrêmioBahiapreliminary
382934
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →