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Brazilian Serie A, round 35 · Thursday, 19 November, (UTC+3)

Cruzeiro — Palmeiras

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Model prediction for 19 November

Cruzeiro40%
Draw29%
Palmeiras31%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Cruzeiro are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 29%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • League table: Cruzeiro — No. 3, 57 pts; Palmeiras — No. 2, 70 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
  • Cruzeiro: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Cruzeiro 1 win, Palmeiras 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cruzeiro — Palmeiras What is xG?1.4–1.3
Cruzeiro not to lose69%
Palmeiras not to lose60%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.551%
Total under 2.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Cruzeiro
  • Cruzeiro goals
  • Palmeiras goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatCruzeiroPalmeiras
Goals scored per match1.91.4
Goals conceded per match1.50.6
xG per match1.691.59
Opponents’ xG1.520.72
Shots15.117.2
On target6.35.8
Corners4.85.2
Cards2.72.6
Possession, %5348

Averages per match: Cruzeiro — the last 10, Palmeiras — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Cruzeiro

  • 30.10away · Atlético-MG1:0
  • 24.10Remo1:0
  • 18.10away · Grêmio4:2
  • 13.10away · RB Bragantino2:4
  • 08.10São Paulo2:0

Palmeiras

  • 01.11Vasco da Gama1:0
  • 29.10away · Santos0:0
  • 25.10RB Bragantino2:0
  • 22.10Fluminense0:1
  • 18.10away · Athletico Paranaense2:0

Head to head

  • 17.05.2026Palmeiras — Cruzeiro1:1
  • 27.10.2025Palmeiras — Cruzeiro0:0
  • 02.06.2025Cruzeiro — Palmeiras2:1
  • 05.12.2024Cruzeiro — Palmeiras1:2
  • 21.07.2024Palmeiras — Cruzeiro2:0

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Copa LibertadoresFlamengo33227468–28+4073
2, Copa LibertadoresPalmeiras332010356–22+3470
3, Copa LibertadoresCruzeiro331761052–46+657
4, Copa LibertadoresFluminense33159952–42+1054

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

  • CoritibaSantospreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • RemoChapecoensepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
  • FlamengoAthletico Paranaensepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
  • CorinthiansBotafogopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
  • GrêmioBahiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →