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Brazilian Serie A, round 35 · Thursday, 19 November, (UTC+3)

Flamengo — Athletico Paranaense

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Model prediction for 19 November

Flamengo77%
Draw16%
Athletico Paranaense7%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Flamengo are clear favourites: 77% against 7% for the opponent, draw 16%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Flamengo are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Flamengo are 298 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Flamengo — No. 1, 73 pts; Athletico Paranaense — No. 5, 54 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
  • Flamengo: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Flamengo 2 wins, Athletico Paranaense 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Flamengo — Athletico Paranaense What is xG?2.2–0.7
Flamengo not to lose93%
Athletico Paranaense not to lose23%
No draw84%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Flamengo
  • Flamengo goals
  • Athletico Paranaense goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatFlamengoAthletico Paranaense
Goals scored per match1.81.9
Goals conceded per match0.82.0
xG per match1.801.39
Opponents’ xG1.081.60
Shots16.315.8
On target6.46.0
Corners7.86.7
Cards2.92.3
Possession, %5950

Averages per match: Flamengo — the last 10, Athletico Paranaense — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Flamengo

  • 30.10away · Vasco da Gama4:1
  • 27.10Atlético-MG3:2
  • 23.10Estudiantes0:0
  • 19.10away · Bahia3:0
  • 16.10away · Estudiantes0:0

Athletico Paranaense

  • 30.10away · Grêmio0:2
  • 24.10away · Vitória1:1
  • 18.10Palmeiras0:2
  • 13.10away · Chapecoense4:1
  • 09.10Atlético-MG2:2

Head to head

  • 18.05.2026Athletico Paranaense — Flamengo1:1
  • 30.09.2024Flamengo — Athletico Paranaense1:0
  • 16.06.2024Athletico Paranaense — Flamengo1:1
  • 14.09.2023Flamengo — Athletico Paranaense0:3
  • 13.07.2023Athletico Paranaense — Flamengo0:2

Full record: 15 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Copa LibertadoresFlamengo33227468–28+4073
2, Copa LibertadoresPalmeiras332010356–22+3470
4, Copa LibertadoresFluminense33159952–42+1054
5, Copa LibertadoresAthletico Paranaense33159950–40+1054
6, Copa SudamericanaBahia331411848–42+653

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

  • CoritibaSantospreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • RemoChapecoensepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
  • CruzeiroPalmeiraspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
  • CorinthiansBotafogopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
  • GrêmioBahiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 77% will not happen in roughly 23 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →