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Brazilian Serie A, round 35 · Thursday, 19 November, (UTC+3)

Grêmio — Bahia

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Model prediction for 19 November

Grêmio38%
Draw29%
Bahia34%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Grêmio 38%, Bahia 34%, draw 29%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • League table: Grêmio — No. 17, 37 pts; Bahia — No. 6, 53 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
  • Grêmio: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Grêmio 1 win, Bahia 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Grêmio — Bahia What is xG?1.5–1.4
Grêmio not to lose66%
Bahia not to lose62%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes61%
Both teams to score: no39%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Grêmio
  • Grêmio goals
  • Bahia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatGrêmioBahia
Goals scored per match1.21.6
Goals conceded per match1.21.4
xG per match1.222.00
Opponents’ xG1.281.57
Shots13.414.2
On target4.34.3
Corners4.75.6
Cards2.82.6
Possession, %4551

Averages per match: Grêmio — the last 10, Bahia — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Grêmio

  • 02.11Atlético-MG2:0
  • 30.10Athletico Paranaense2:0
  • 27.10away · Coritiba1:0
  • 18.10Cruzeiro2:4
  • 11.10Internacional1:1

Bahia

  • 29.10São Paulo3:2
  • 25.10away · Santos1:1
  • 19.10Flamengo0:3
  • 12.10Mirassol1:0
  • 09.10away · Palmeiras0:1

Head to head

  • 17.05.2026Bahia — Grêmio1:1
  • 20.10.2025Bahia — Grêmio4:0
  • 25.05.2025Grêmio — Bahia1:0
  • 17.08.2024Grêmio — Bahia0:2
  • 28.04.2024Bahia — Grêmio1:0

Full record: 15 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
5, Copa LibertadoresAthletico Paranaense33159950–40+1054
6, Copa SudamericanaBahia331411848–42+653
7, Copa SudamericanaAtlético-MG331481144–39+550
16Vitória331081535–48-1338
17, RelegationGrêmio339101437–44-737
18, RelegationCorinthians33991536–42-636

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

  • CoritibaSantospreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • RemoChapecoensepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
  • FlamengoAthletico Paranaensepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
  • CruzeiroPalmeiraspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
  • CorinthiansBotafogopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →