Brazilian Serie A, round 35 · Thursday, 19 November, 01:30 (UTC+3)

Coritiba — Santos

Model prediction for 19 November

Coritiba30%

Draw29%

Santos41%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Santos are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

By the strength ratings Santos are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Coritiba — No. 11, 42 pts; Santos — No. 9, 47 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Coritiba 1 win, Santos 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Coritiba — Santos What is xG?		1.3–1.5
Coritiba not to lose		59%
Santos not to lose		70%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		52%
Total under 2.5		48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Coritiba
Coritiba goals
Santos goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Coritiba	Santos
Goals scored per match	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded per match	2.0	1.5
xG per match	1.33	1.49
Opponents’ xG	1.86	1.20
Shots	12.7	16.8
On target	3.7	5.5
Corners	4.8	5.7
Cards	2.3	3.3
Possession, %	43	51

Averages per match: Coritiba — the last 10, Santos — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Coritiba

04.11away · Internacional0:1
31.10Vitória2:0
27.10Grêmio0:1
18.10away · Atlético-MG0:1
12.10Botafogo1:1

Santos

03.11away · RB Bragantino1:2
29.10Palmeiras0:0
25.10Bahia1:1
18.10away · Fluminense2:1
11.10away · Atlético-MG1:2

Head to head

17.05.2026Santos — Coritiba0:3
14.05.2026Coritiba — Santos0:2
23.04.2026Santos — Coritiba0:0
12.11.2024Coritiba — Santos0:2
23.07.2024Santos — Coritiba4:0

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8, Copa Sudamericana	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44–39	+5	47
9, Copa Sudamericana	Santos	34	12	11	11	50–49	+1	47
10, Copa Sudamericana	São Paulo	33	12	7	14	39–39	0	43
11, Copa Sudamericana	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40–51	-11	42
12	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39–48	-9	40

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

02:00
RemoChapecoensepreliminary
582517
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
02:30
FlamengoAthletico Paranaensepreliminary
77167
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
02:30
CruzeiroPalmeiraspreliminary
402931
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
03:30
CorinthiansBotafogopreliminary
532720
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
03:30
GrêmioBahiapreliminary
382934
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →