Tanzania Premier League, round 10 · Thursday, 29 October, 16:15 (UTC+3)

Fountain Gate FC — Simba SC

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Model prediction and result

0:1Came true

Fountain Gate FC5%

Draw16%

Simba SC80%

Model estimate at 08:12 (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Simba SC to win (80%), came true.

Simba SC are clear favourites: 80% against 5% for the opponent, draw 16%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 31%.

Why

By the strength ratings Simba SC are about 2.1 goals per match stronger.
Simba SC are 365 points higher on Elo.

Facts

Fountain Gate FC: winless in 5; Simba SC: 5 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Fountain Gate FC 0 wins, Simba SC 4, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fountain Gate FC — Simba SC What is xG?		0.4–2.1
Fountain Gate FC not to lose		20%
Simba SC not to lose		95%
No draw		84%
Both teams to score: yes		31%
Both teams to score: no		69%
Total over 2.5		47%
Total under 2.5		53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Fountain Gate FC
Fountain Gate FC goals
Simba SC goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Match events

36′Rushine De Reuck · Simba SC0:1

Form

Fountain Gate FC

25.10away · Geita Gold FC1:1
16.10Pamba Jiji1:1
09.10JKT Tanzania1:2
13.09away · Kagera Sugar1:1
31.08Young Africans0:2

Simba SC

13.10Mashujaa6:1
10.10Young Africans2:1
16.09away · Azam FC2:0
31.08Geita Gold FC2:0
27.08Coastal Union1:0

Head to head

15.04.2026Fountain Gate FC — Simba SC0:3
25.09.2025Simba SC — Fountain Gate FC3:0
06.02.2025Fountain Gate FC — Simba SC1:1
25.08.2024Simba SC — Fountain Gate FC4:0
12.03.2024Simba SC — Fountain Gate FC3:1

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1	Simba SC	10	10	0	0	23–6	+17	30
2	Young Africans	10	8	1	1	23–5	+18	25
14	Pamba Jiji	11	1	3	7	10–17	-7	6
15	Fountain Gate FC	11	1	3	7	7–17	-10	6
16	Kagera Sugar	11	1	3	7	9–22	-13	6

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

14:00
TRA UnitedFountain Gate FC2 November · Tanzania Premier League
612514
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
19:00
Simba SCNamungo FC2 November · Tanzania Premier League
8893
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.5

Tanzania Premier League on the same day

14:00
Pamba JijiSingida Black Stars
322939
2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
16:15
TRA UnitedGeita Gold FC
572716
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
19:00
Namungo FCPolisi Tanzania FC
433126
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →