Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Independiente del Valle — CSD Macará
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Independiente del Valle are clear favourites: 61% against 16% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Independiente del Valle are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Independiente del Valle are 150 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- CSD Macará: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Independiente del Valle 3 wins, CSD Macará 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente del Valle — CSD Macará What is xG? | 1.8–0.9 | |
| Independiente del Valle not to lose | 84% | |
| CSD Macará not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle goals
- CSD Macará goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Independiente del Valle | CSD Macará |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 0.49 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.28 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 15.0 | 15.4 |
| On target | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 44 |
Form
- 01.11LDU de Quito2:0
- 24.10Universidad Católica (ECU)0:0
- 17.10away · CSD Macará0:1
- 10.10Aucas2:1
- 18.09away · Flamengo1:1
- 01.11Barcelona SC3:0
- 25.10away · LDU de Quito2:1
- 17.10Independiente del Valle1:0
- 11.10away · Universidad Católica (ECU)1:0
- 19.09away · Aucas2:1
Head to head
- 17.10.2026CSD Macará — Independiente del Valle1:0
- 06.09.2026Independiente del Valle — CSD Macará3:1
- 16.05.2026CSD Macará — Independiente del Valle0:3
- 12.07.2025CSD Macará — Independiente del Valle1:2
- 16.03.2025Independiente del Valle — CSD Macará1:1
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- LDU de QuitoAucaspreliminary5627181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Universidad Católica (ECU)Barcelona SCpreliminary5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- OrenseMushuc Runapreliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Técnico UniversitarioDeportivo Cuencapreliminary4231271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- MantaDelfínpreliminary4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →