Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Universidad Católica (ECU) — Barcelona SC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Universidad Católica (ECU) are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Universidad Católica (ECU) are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Universidad Católica (ECU) are 100 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Universidad Católica (ECU): winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Universidad Católica (ECU) 1 win, Barcelona SC 0, 4 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Universidad Católica (ECU) — Barcelona SC What is xG? | 1.5–0.9 | |
| Universidad Católica (ECU) not to lose | 79% | |
| Barcelona SC not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Universidad Católica (ECU) | Barcelona SC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 14.7 | 11.5 |
| On target | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 5.5 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 58 | 57 |
Form
- 01.11Aucas1:2
- 24.10away · Independiente del Valle0:0
- 19.10away · Barcelona SC1:1
- 11.10CSD Macará0:1
- 21.09away · LDU de Quito1:2
- 01.11away · CSD Macará0:3
- 26.10away · Aucas4:0
- 19.10Universidad Católica (ECU)1:1
- 12.10away · LDU de Quito1:2
- 14.09Delfín1:1
Head to head
- 19.10.2026Barcelona SC — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:1
- 22.07.2026Universidad Católica (ECU) — Barcelona SC2:1
- 22.03.2026Barcelona SC — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:1
- 08.12.2025Barcelona SC — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:1
- 03.11.2025Universidad Católica (ECU) — Barcelona SC1:1
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- Independiente del ValleCSD Macarápreliminary6123161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- LDU de QuitoAucaspreliminary5627181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- OrenseMushuc Runapreliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Técnico UniversitarioDeportivo Cuencapreliminary4231271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- MantaDelfínpreliminary4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →