Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
LDU de Quito — Aucas
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
LDU de Quito are clear favourites: 56% against 18% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings LDU de Quito are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- LDU de Quito are 134 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: LDU de Quito 2 wins, Aucas 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: LDU de Quito — Aucas What is xG? | 1.5–0.8 | |
| LDU de Quito not to lose | 82% | |
| Aucas not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap LDU de Quito
- LDU de Quito goals
- Aucas goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | LDU de Quito | Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.49 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 13.6 | 11.7 |
| On target | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 59 | 49 |
Form
- 01.11away · Independiente del Valle0:2
- 25.10CSD Macará1:2
- 18.10away · Aucas1:1
- 12.10Barcelona SC2:1
- 21.09Universidad Católica (ECU)2:1
- 01.11away · Universidad Católica (ECU)2:1
- 26.10Barcelona SC0:4
- 18.10LDU de Quito1:1
- 10.10away · Independiente del Valle1:2
- 19.09CSD Macará1:2
Head to head
- 18.10.2026Aucas — LDU de Quito1:1
- 17.08.2026Aucas — LDU de Quito0:1
- 23.04.2026LDU de Quito — Aucas0:0
- 10.08.2025Aucas — LDU de Quito1:0
- 19.04.2025LDU de Quito — Aucas3:1
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- Independiente del ValleCSD Macarápreliminary6123161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Universidad Católica (ECU)Barcelona SCpreliminary5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- OrenseMushuc Runapreliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Técnico UniversitarioDeportivo Cuencapreliminary4231271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- MantaDelfínpreliminary4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →