Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Orense — Mushuc Runa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Orense are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Orense are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Orense are 122 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Orense: unbeaten in 4; Mushuc Runa: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Orense 3 wins, Mushuc Runa 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Orense — Mushuc Runa What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Orense not to lose | 76% | |
| Mushuc Runa not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Orense
- Orense goals
- Mushuc Runa goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Orense | Mushuc Runa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 13.1 | 13.5 |
| On target | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 5.8 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 51 |
Form
- 02.11Técnico Universitario1:1
- 24.10Delfín4:0
- 19.10away · Mushuc Runa1:1
- 11.10Deportivo Cuenca0:0
- 21.09away · Manta1:2
- 03.11Manta2:3
- 26.10away · Técnico Universitario0:3
- 19.10Orense1:1
- 09.10away · Delfín2:3
- 21.09away · Deportivo Cuenca1:1
Head to head
- 19.10.2026Mushuc Runa — Orense1:1
- 20.07.2026Mushuc Runa — Orense2:1
- 20.03.2026Orense — Mushuc Runa3:2
- 14.09.2025Orense — Mushuc Runa3:1
- 18.05.2025Mushuc Runa — Orense2:5
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- Independiente del ValleCSD Macarápreliminary6123161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- LDU de QuitoAucaspreliminary5627181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Universidad Católica (ECU)Barcelona SCpreliminary5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Técnico UniversitarioDeportivo Cuencapreliminary4231271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- MantaDelfínpreliminary4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →