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Belarusian Premier League · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Vitebsk CSK

ML Vitebsk — FC Minsk

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Model prediction and result

4:0Came true
ML Vitebsk78%
Draw16%
FC Minsk6%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:0: the model's most likely outcome, ML Vitebsk to win (78%), came true.

ML Vitebsk are clear favourites: 78% against 6% for the opponent, draw 16%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 40%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings ML Vitebsk are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
  • ML Vitebsk are 367 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • FC Minsk: 4 defeats in a row.
  • Last 3 meetings: ML Vitebsk 2 wins, FC Minsk 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: ML Vitebsk — FC Minsk What is xG?2.5–0.6
ML Vitebsk not to lose94%
FC Minsk not to lose22%
No draw84%
Both teams to score: yes40%
Both teams to score: no60%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap ML Vitebsk
  • ML Vitebsk goals
  • FC Minsk goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 8′Bosic R. · ML Vitebsk1:0
  2. 8′Moskalenchik I. · ML Vitebsk
  3. 11′Diabate B. · ML Vitebsk2:0
  4. 24′Zubovich E. · FC Minsk
  5. 32′Bosic R. · ML Vitebsk3:0
  6. 36′Sviridenko I. · FC Minsk
  7. 45′Cleonise D. · ML Vitebsk4:0
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Dieye M. ↔ Zubovich E. · FC Minsk
  2. 46′Dikhtievskiy V. ↔ Sviridenko I. · FC Minsk
  3. 46′Migdalenok A. ↔ Zherdev G. · FC Minsk
  4. 46′Mohammadi M. ↔ Moskalenchik I. · ML Vitebsk
  5. 60′Matusevich S. ↔ Ksenofontov A. · FC Minsk
  6. 63′Skibskiy Y. ↔ Balanovich S. · ML Vitebsk
  7. 63′Gnaka S. ↔ Abdullahi O. · ML Vitebsk
  8. 65′Gomis H. ↔ Kuchinskiy K. · FC Minsk
  9. 70′Baranok N. ↔ Volkov Z. · ML Vitebsk
  10. 76′Bulanov M. ↔ Diabate B. · ML Vitebsk

Match statistics

ML VitebskFC Minsk
  • 64Possession, %36
  • 15Shots1
  • 8On target0
  • 9Corners0
  • 8Fouls7
  • 0Offsides6
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

ML Vitebsk

  1. Abdullahi O.
  2. Diabate B.
  3. Gomanov K.
  4. Gromyko V.
  5. Moskalenchik I.
  6. GPavlyuchenko P.
  7. Volkov Z.
  8. Bocherov V.
  9. Balanovich S. (C)
  10. Bosic R.
  11. Cleonise D.

FC Minsk

  1. Aleksievich I.
  2. Campo F.
  3. GGutor A.
  4. Ksenofontov A.
  5. Yatskevich V.
  6. Abena F.
  7. Sviridenko I.
  8. Zubovich E.
  9. Zherdev G.
  10. Kuchinskiy K.
  11. Khadarkevich R.

Form

ML Vitebsk

  • 28.10away · Isloch0:1
  • 24.10away · Vitebsk2:0
  • 18.10Neman1:0
  • 15.10Zhodino2:0
  • 11.10away · FC Gomel5:1

FC Minsk

  • 23.10Baranovici1:3
  • 17.10away · Isloch2:4
  • 10.10Zhodino0:1
  • 18.09away · Belshina0:2
  • 11.09Slavia Mozyr1:0

Head to head

  • 21.06.2026FC Minsk — ML Vitebsk2:2
  • 19.10.2025ML Vitebsk — FC Minsk4:1
  • 25.05.2025FC Minsk — ML Vitebsk1:2

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Champions League qualifyingML Vitebsk27178256–19+3759
2, Europa League or Conference LeagueIsloch27177351–21+3058
8Zhodino271061135–35036
9FC Minsk271041333–40-734
10Slavia Mozyr27871234–38-431

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

  • NaftanML Vitebsk7 November · Belarusian Premier League
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
  • FC MinskDynamo Brest8 November · Belarusian Premier League
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8

Belarusian Premier League on the same day

  • IslochSlavia Mozyr
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
  • Din. MinskNeman
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
  • ZhodinoBelshina
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →