French Ligue 2, round 12 · Friday, 6 November, 22:00 (UTC+3)

Montpellier — Metz

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 6 November

Montpellier47%

Draw29%

Metz24%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Montpellier are clear favourites: 47% against 24% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

Montpellier are 161 points higher on Elo.
In recent matches the betting market rated Montpellier higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Montpellier — No. 2, 24 pts; Metz — No. 10, 14 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
Montpellier: 4 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Montpellier 4 wins, Metz 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Montpellier — Metz What is xG?		1.6–1.2
Montpellier not to lose		76%
Metz not to lose		53%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		52%
Total under 2.5		48%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Montpellier
Montpellier goals
Metz goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Montpellier	Metz
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded per match	0.5	1.5
xG per match	1.20	1.47
Opponents’ xG	1.39	1.61
Shots	11.2	14.4
On target	4.8	4.8
Corners	5.0	4.9
Cards	2.3	1.7
Possession, %	58	53

Averages per match: Montpellier — the last 10, Metz — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Montpellier

31.10away · Annecy FC3:0
26.10Red Star2:1
19.10away · Rodez3:0
09.10Grenoble2:0
18.09away · Reims1:1

Metz

30.10Pau1:3
23.10away · Dunkerque1:1
17.10Sochaux3:2
12.10away · Dijon2:4
19.09Saint-Étienne2:2

Head to head

11.01.2026Metz — Montpellier0:4
18.02.2024Montpellier — Metz3:0
17.12.2023Metz — Montpellier0:1
01.05.2022Montpellier — Metz2:2
01.12.2021Metz — Montpellier1:3

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Saint-Étienne	11	8	1	2	23–11	+12	25
2, Promotion	Montpellier	11	7	3	1	16–6	+10	24
3, Promotion play-offs	Nancy	11	7	1	3	16–9	+7	22
9	Guingamp	11	4	2	5	16–15	+1	14
10	Metz	11	3	5	3	17–17	0	14
11	Rodez	11	4	1	6	17–22	-5	13

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 2 on the same day

22:00
BoulogneAnnecy FC
413129
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
22:00
DijonRed Star
362836
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
22:00
DunkerqueGuingamp
332938
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
22:00
GrenobleReims
272845
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
22:00
NancySochaux
562618
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →