Paraguayan Primera Division · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)
Nacional (PAR) — Cerro Porteño
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Nacional (PAR) are slightly stronger: 42% against 27%, draw 31%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nacional (PAR) are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Nacional (PAR) are 139 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Nacional (PAR) 1 win, Cerro Porteño 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nacional (PAR) — Cerro Porteño What is xG? | 1.2–1.0 | |
| Nacional (PAR) not to lose | 73% | |
| Cerro Porteño not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Nacional (PAR)
- Nacional (PAR) goals
- Cerro Porteño goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Nacional (PAR) | Cerro Porteño |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 13.7 | 15.9 |
| On target | 4.9 | 4.7 |
| Corners | 5.8 | 6.4 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Possession, % | 52 | 58 |
Form
- 04.11Sportivo San Lorenzo0:2
- 01.11away · Luqueño3:0
- 24.10Sportivo Trinidense0:1
- 17.10away · Guaraní2:0
- 13.10Recoleta1:0
- 01.11Olimpia0:2
- 26.10away · Sportivo San Lorenzo3:1
- 18.10Sportivo Ameliano2:2
- 11.10away · Luqueño3:0
- 06.102 de Mayo0:2
Head to head
- 08.09.2026Cerro Porteño — Nacional (PAR)1:0
- 12.04.2026Nacional (PAR) — Cerro Porteño0:0
- 16.02.2026Cerro Porteño — Nacional (PAR)0:2
- 28.10.2025Nacional (PAR) — Cerro Porteño1:2
- 09.08.2025Cerro Porteño — Nacional (PAR)0:0
Paraguayan Primera on the same day
- Rubio ÑúLibertadpreliminary2829422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- 2 de MayoSportivo San Lorenzopreliminary5328191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- Sportivo AmelianoLuqueñopreliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- OlimpiaSportivo Trinidensepreliminary5925151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- RecoletaGuaranípreliminary2930412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →