Paraguayan Primera Division · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)
Recoleta — Guaraní
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Guaraní are slightly stronger: 41% against 29%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Guaraní are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Guaraní are 60 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Recoleta 1 win, Guaraní 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Recoleta — Guaraní What is xG? | 1.1–1.4 | |
| Recoleta not to lose | 59% | |
| Guaraní not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Recoleta
- Recoleta goals
- Guaraní goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Recoleta | Guaraní |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 12.0 | 14.5 |
| On target | 3.1 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 5.7 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 50 |
Form
- 31.10Sportivo Ameliano3:0
- 25.10away · 2 de Mayo1:1
- 17.10Rubio Ñú1:0
- 13.10away · Nacional (PAR)0:1
- 05.10Libertad1:2
- 31.102 de Mayo1:0
- 23.10away · Rubio Ñú2:0
- 17.10Nacional (PAR)0:2
- 12.10away · Libertad2:2
- 03.10Sportivo San Lorenzo1:1
Head to head
- 07.09.2026Guaraní — Recoleta2:0
- 24.05.2026Recoleta — Guaraní2:1
- 19.03.2026Guaraní — Recoleta3:1
- 19.10.2025Guaraní — Recoleta2:1
- 05.08.2025Recoleta — Guaraní2:3
Paraguayan Primera on the same day
- Nacional (PAR)Cerro Porteñopreliminary4231271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
- Rubio ÑúLibertadpreliminary2829422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- 2 de MayoSportivo San Lorenzopreliminary5328191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- Sportivo AmelianoLuqueñopreliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- OlimpiaSportivo Trinidensepreliminary5925151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →