EFL Championship, round 14 · Tuesday, 3 November, MSK
Portsmouth — Swansea City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 3 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Portsmouth 38%, Swansea City 34%, draw 29%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Portsmouth — No. 20, 8 pts; Swansea City — No. 1, 23 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
- Swansea City: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 1 win, Swansea City 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Portsmouth — Swansea City What is xG? | 1.2–1.2 | |
| Portsmouth not to lose | 66% | |
| Swansea City not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Portsmouth
- Portsmouth goals
- Swansea City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Southampton0:1
- 19.09Blackburn Rovers2:2
- 12.09away · Charlton Athletic0:0
- 05.09Cardiff City2:0
- 01.09Derby County0:2
- 13.10away · Millwall1:0
- 10.10Norwich City2:1
- 19.09away · Lincoln City2:1
- 12.09Burnley3:1
- 08.09away · Southampton1:3
Head to head
- 10.03.2026Portsmouth — Swansea City1:2
- 09.12.2025Swansea City — Portsmouth1:0
- 01.01.2025Portsmouth — Swansea City4:0
- 30.11.2024Swansea City — Portsmouth2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Swansea City | 10 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
Championship on the same day
- Blackburn RoversStoke Citypreliminary5027221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Derby CountyNorwich Citypreliminary3829341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Preston North EndSheffield Unitedpreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Queens Park RangersBurnleypreliminary3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- WatfordLincoln Citypreliminary333037XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
- Charlton AthleticBolton Wandererspreliminary372934XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- Birmingham CityMillwallpreliminary4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- West Bromwich AlbionSouthamptonpreliminary3429372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →