Segunda Division, round 14 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3)
Real Oviedo — Girona
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Real Oviedo 37%, Girona 35%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Oviedo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Real Oviedo are 63 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Real Oviedo — No. 9, 18 pts; Girona — No. 7, 21 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: Real Oviedo 1 win, Girona 1, 2 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: Real Oviedo 12, Girona 14.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Oviedo — Girona What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Real Oviedo not to lose | 65% | |
| Girona not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Real Oviedo
- Real Oviedo goals
- Girona goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Real Oviedo | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.35 | 1.44 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.66 | 1.25 |
| Shots | 15.7 | 13.6 |
| On target | 5.6 | 5.0 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 3.3 |
| Cards | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 48 |
Form
- 02.11Las Palmas2:3
- 29.10away · Numancia3:3
- 24.10away · Almería2:2
- 18.10away · AD Ceuta FC2:1
- 12.10Eibar3:1
- 31.10away · Real Sociedad B0:1
- 27.10away · CD Cuarte2:0
- 24.10Celta Fortuna5:1
- 18.10FC Andorra2:0
- 12.10away · Tenerife1:1
Head to head
- 31.01.2026Real Oviedo — Girona1:0
- 25.10.2025Girona — Real Oviedo3:3
- 06.03.2022Girona — Real Oviedo2:1
- 26.09.2021Real Oviedo — Girona0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 | Girona | 12 | 6 | +11 | 21 |
| 8 | Burgos CF | 12 | 6 | +4 | 21 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo | 12 | 5 | +2 | 18 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 12 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
Segunda Division on the same day
- Real ValladolidCastellónpreliminary3227412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- Real Sociedad BSporting Gijónpreliminary4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- AlmeríaFC Andorrapreliminary5924181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- MallorcaCórdobapreliminary5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →