Segunda Division, round 14 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3)
Real Valladolid — Castellón
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Castellón are slightly stronger: 41% against 32%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Castellón are 130 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Real Valladolid — No. 13, 15 pts; Castellón — No. 1, 27 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Castellón: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 2 meetings: Real Valladolid 1 win, Castellón 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Valladolid — Castellón What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Real Valladolid not to lose | 59% | |
| Castellón not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Real Valladolid
- Real Valladolid goals
- Castellón goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Real Valladolid | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| xG per match | 1.85 | 1.91 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.33 | 1.03 |
| Shots | 13.9 | 14.1 |
| On target | 6.0 | 5.1 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 60 |
Form
- 02.11Leganés4:3
- 29.10away · CD Covadonga1:0
- 23.10away · Granada1:2
- 18.10Eldense2:3
- 12.10Albacete5:0
- 01.11away · Burgos CF1:1
- 29.10away · Conquense3:0
- 25.10Sporting Gijón4:0
- 17.10away · Las Palmas3:0
- 11.10away · FC Andorra0:1
Head to head
- 08.02.2026Real Valladolid — Castellón0:4
- 22.08.2025Castellón — Real Valladolid0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Castellón | 12 | 8 | +18 | 27 |
| 2, Promotion | Almería | 12 | 8 | +13 | 26 |
| 12 | Córdoba | 12 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Real Valladolid | 12 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 11 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
Segunda Division on the same day
- Real Sociedad BSporting Gijónpreliminary4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- AlmeríaFC Andorrapreliminary5924181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- MallorcaCórdobapreliminary5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Real OviedoGironapreliminary3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →