Copa del Rey, round 1 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio El Malecón
RS Gimnástica — UD Ourense
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 3:1 (90 min 1:1): the model's most likely outcome, UD Ourense to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: RS Gimnástica 36%, UD Ourense 37%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- RS Gimnástica are 55 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: RS Gimnástica — UD Ourense What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| RS Gimnástica not to lose | 63% | |
| UD Ourense not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap RS Gimnástica
- RS Gimnástica goals
- UD Ourense goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 10′Jose Luis Friaza · RS Gimnástica1:0
- 93′Javi Labrada · UD Ourense1:1
- 95′Miguel Sazatornil · RS Gimnástica2:1
- 115′Alberto Gómez · RS Gimnástica3:1
Form
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Copa del Rey on the same day
- 1219682The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:1.3.1
- 2024562The most likely outcome came true: 21:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 0:2.2.9
- 714802The most likely outcome came true: 20:6Final score 0:6. Model's score: 0:4.3.4
- 2525502The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3026442The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 815782The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.3
- 1923582The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
- San Sebastian de los ReyesCD Coriafinal 1:2 (90 min 1:1)4326311The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →