UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, 23:00 (UTC+3)

Sunderland — Dinamo Zagreb

Model prediction for 5 November

Sunderland67%

Draw19%

Dinamo Zagreb13%

Model estimate at 01:01 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Sunderland are clear favourites: 67% against 13% for the opponent, draw 19%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.

Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

Sunderland's starting XI is worth €197m, Dinamo Zagreb's €25m (Transfermarkt).
By the strength ratings Sunderland are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Sunderland — No. 10, 6 pts; Dinamo Zagreb — No. 14, 4 pts. A gap of 2 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sunderland — Dinamo Zagreb What is xG?		2.2–0.9
Sunderland not to lose		87%
Dinamo Zagreb not to lose		33%
No draw		81%
Both teams to score: yes		53%
Both teams to score: no		47%
Total over 2.5		60%
Total under 2.5		40%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Sunderland
Sunderland goals
Dinamo Zagreb goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Sunderland

15.10away · Torreense2:1
10.10Brighton & Hove Albion0:2
20.09away · Manchester City3:5
16.09AZ Alkmaar1:0
12.09Arsenal0:2

Dinamo Zagreb

15.10Anderlecht1:0
16.09away · Hapoel Beer Sheva0:0
26.02away · Genk3:3
19.02Genk1:3
29.01away · FC Midtjylland0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Olympiacos	2	2	0	0	3–1	+2	6
10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	3–1	+2	6
11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Sparta Prague	2	1	1	0	5–2	+3	4
13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Rennes	2	1	1	0	2–1	+1	4
14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1	1	0	1–0	+1	4
15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	6–3	+3	3

Season 2026/27

Full table

Europa League on the same day

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MilanFerencvárospreliminary
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1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
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20:45
Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary
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20:45
RennesOlympiacospreliminary
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1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
20:45
AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary
422631
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
20:45
Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary
622116
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
20:45
NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary
602218
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
20:45
LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary
282547
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →