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K League 1 (South Korea), round 34 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Ulsan HD FC — Gangwon FC

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Ulsan HD FC43%
Draw30%
Gangwon FC27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Ulsan HD FC to win (43%), came true.

Ulsan HD FC are slightly stronger: 43% against 27%, draw 30%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • In recent matches the betting market rated Ulsan HD FC higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

  • Gangwon FC: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Ulsan HD FC 1 win, Gangwon FC 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ulsan HD FC — Gangwon FC What is xG?1.4–1.2
Ulsan HD FC not to lose73%
Gangwon FC not to lose57%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Ulsan HD FC
  • Ulsan HD FC goals
  • Gangwon FC goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 41′Byeong-Geun Hwang · own goal · Gangwon FC0:1
  2. 69′Erick Farias · Ulsan HD FC1:1
  3. 85′Erick Farias · Ulsan HD FC2:1
  4. 88′Gun-Hee Kim · Gangwon FC
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Yago Cariello ↔ Gyu-Sung Lee · Ulsan HD FC
  2. 57′Erick Farias ↔ Heui-Kyun Lee · Ulsan HD FC
  3. 64′Chul Hong ↔ Abdelkarim Mammar Chaouche · Gangwon FC
  4. 67′Darijan Bojanić ↔ Yong-Woo Park · Ulsan HD FC
  5. 75′Eun-Ho Lee ↔ Young-Joon Goh · Gangwon FC
  6. 75′Seung-Won Lee ↔ Min-Woo Seo · Gangwon FC
  7. 75′Gun-Hee Kim ↔ Dae-Won Kim · Gangwon FC
  8. 83′Abdalla Halaihal ↔ Byeong-Chan Choi · Gangwon FC
  9. 86′In-Woo Back ↔ Jin-Hyun Lee · Ulsan HD FC
  10. 86′Sang-Min Sim ↔ Jong-Gyu Yeun · Ulsan HD FC

Match statistics

Ulsan HD FCGangwon FC
  • 46Possession, %54
  • 8Shots7
  • 7On target4
  • 0Corners2
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Ulsan HD FC

  1. GKByeong-Geun Hwang
  2. DFYoung-Gwon Kim
  3. DFJong-Gyu Yeun86′
  4. DFSeung-Hyeon Jung
  5. DFHyun-Taek Cho
  6. MFGyu-Sung Lee46′
  7. MFThomas Kotte
  8. MFYong-Woo Park67′
  9. FWDong-Gyeong Lee
  10. FWJin-Hyun Lee86′
  11. FWHeui-Kyun Lee57′
Came on (5)
  1. FWYago Cariello44′
  2. FWErick Farias33′
  3. MFDarijan Bojanić23′
  4. MFIn-Woo Back4′
  5. DFSang-Min Sim4′

Gangwon FC

  1. GKChung-Hyo Park
  2. DFGi-Hyuk Lee
  3. DFAbdelkarim Mammar Chaouche64′
  4. DFJoon-hyuck Kang
  5. DFMin-Ha Shin
  6. MFJae-Hyeon Mo
  7. MFYou-Hyeon Lee
  8. MFMin-Woo Seo75′
  9. MFDae-Won Kim75′
  10. FWYoung-Joon Goh75′
  11. FWByeong-Chan Choi83′
Came on (5)
  1. DFChul Hong26′
  2. FWAbdalla Halaihal7′
  3. FWGun-Hee Kim15′
  4. MFSeung-Won Lee15′
  5. FWEun-Ho Lee15′

Form

Ulsan HD FC

  • 24.10Pohang Steelers2:2
  • 17.10Bucheon FC 19952:1
  • 11.10away · Gwangju FC3:4
  • 19.09away · FC Anyang1:2
  • 12.09Incheon United2:1

Gangwon FC

  • 24.10away · FC Seoul1:1
  • 18.10Incheon United1:1
  • 09.10Bucheon FC 19952:0
  • 27.09Incheon United0:0
  • 20.09Jeju SK0:1

Head to head

  • 16.08.2026Ulsan HD FC — Gangwon FC2:3
  • 17.05.2026Gangwon FC — Ulsan HD FC2:0
  • 28.02.2026Ulsan HD FC — Gangwon FC3:1
  • 27.07.2025Gangwon FC — Ulsan HD FC2:2
  • 17.05.2025Gangwon FC — Ulsan HD FC1:1

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Championship roundFC Seoul34207761–30+3167
2, Championship roundUlsan HD FC341661254–48+654
3, Championship roundDaejeon Hana Citizen3413111053–41+1250
5, Championship roundIncheon United3413101144–35+949
6, Championship roundGangwon FC341115841–32+948
7, Relegation roundJeju SK3412111140–38+247

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

K League 1 on the same day

  • Pohang SteelersJeju SK
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
  • FC SeoulIncheon United
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
  • FC AnyangBucheon FC 1995
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →