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Copa del Rey, round 1 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Xerez — Cádiz

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Model prediction and result

1:3Came true
Xerez22%
Draw25%
Cádiz53%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Cádiz to win (53%), came true.

Cádiz are clear favourites: 53% against 22% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.1).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Cádiz are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Cádiz are 111 points higher on Elo.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Xerez — Cádiz What is xG?1.1–1.8
Xerez not to lose47%
Cádiz not to lose78%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Xerez
  • Xerez goals
  • Cádiz goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 2′Jaime Lopez · Xerez1:0
  2. 25′Cristian Gutiérrez · Cádiz1:1
  3. 60′Álvaro Pascual · Cádiz1:2
  4. 84′Borja Vázquez · Cádiz1:3

Form

Xerez

  • 06.11AD Ceuta FC0:1

Cádiz

  • 25.10AD Ceuta FC3:1
  • 18.10away · Granada0:2
  • 11.10Sporting Gijón0:1
  • 03.10Leganés4:0
  • 26.09away · Tenerife1:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • MallorcaCádiz2 November · Segunda Division
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.5

Copa del Rey on the same day

  • NumanciaReal Oviedo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:1.3.1
  • Peña SportSD Huesca
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:5. Model's score: 0:2.2.9
  • Atletico CalatayudOsasuna
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:6. Model's score: 0:4.3.4
  • Atlético BalearesEldense
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
  • Coruxo FCZamora
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
  • UB LebrijanaGetafe
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.3
  • PoblenseAD Ceuta FC
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
  • San Sebastian de los ReyesCD Coriafinal 1:2 (90 min 1:1)
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →