VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Bars — Metallurg Novokuznetsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Metallurg Novokuznetsk are clear favourites: 67% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 27%.
Why
- Metallurg Novokuznetsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.4 expected goals against 1.6.
Facts
- League table: Bars — No. 21, 19 pts; Metallurg Novokuznetsk — No. 7, 27 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Bars: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Bars 1 win, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 4.
- Days of rest before the match: Bars 13, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 11.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bars — Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 1.6–2.4 | |
| Bars to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 33% | |
| Metallurg Novokuznetsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 67% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 27% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 73% |
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Form
- 02.11away · AKM0:3
- 31.10away · Ryazan1:2
- 25.10Almetyevsk0:2
- 23.10CSK VVS3:2
- 16.10SKA-VMF St. Petersburg0:4
- 04.11Khimik5:6
- 29.10away · Gornyak4:3 SO
- 27.10away · Chelmet Chelyabinsk3:1
- 25.10away · Magnitka Magnitogorsk3:0
- 23.10away · Orsk1:2
Head to head
- 27.12.2025Bars — Metallurg Novokuznetsk2:6
- 28.11.2025Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Bars4:2
- 25.12.2024Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Bars2:5
- 27.11.2024Bars — Metallurg Novokuznetsk5:6 SO
- 15.12.2023Bars — Metallurg Novokuznetsk2:3 SO
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Playoffs | Orsk | 19 | 11 | +11 | 28 |
| 7, Playoffs | Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 21 | 12 | +14 | 27 |
| 8, Playoffs | Khimik | 20 | 11 | +22 | 26 |
| 20 | Rubin Tyumen | 19 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 21 | Bars | 20 | 9 | -16 | 19 |
| 22 | Krasnoyarsk | 21 | 9 | -13 | 18 |
VHL on the same day
- Chelmet ChelyabinskBuran Voronezhpreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.7
- Magnitka MagnitogorskTambovpreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.5
- OrskDizelpreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.0
- Dinamo St. PetersburgOmskie Kryliapreliminary38622The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.6
- Zvezda MoscowKurganpreliminary61391The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.6
- CSK VVSKrasnoyarskpreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.4
- AlmetyevskHC Norilskpreliminary67331The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.6
- KalugaRyazanpreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 125%Model's score: 2:13.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →