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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3)

Frolunda — Malmo

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Model prediction for 12 November

Frolunda48%
Draw in regulation21%
Malmo30%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Frolunda are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

  • Frolunda are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.3.

Facts

  • League table: Frolunda — No. 3, 31 pts; Malmo — No. 4, 25 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Malmo: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Frolunda 5 wins, Malmo 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Frolunda — Malmo2.9–2.4
Frolunda to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Malmo to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Frolunda
  • Frolunda goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Frolunda

  • 31.10Linkoping4:1
  • 29.10away · Orebro2:3
  • 27.10Rogle4:5
  • 24.10away · HV 716:2
  • 22.10away · Rogle1:4

Malmo

  • 31.10HV 713:2 OT
  • 29.10away · Rogle3:0
  • 27.10Linkoping8:2
  • 24.10Timra1:2
  • 22.10away · IF Bjorkloven4:2

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026Malmo — Frolunda1:2
  • 14.03.2026Frolunda — Malmo4:1
  • 28.12.2025Malmo — Frolunda2:3 SO
  • 20.11.2025Frolunda — Malmo3:0
  • 09.10.2025Malmo — Frolunda1:6

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSkelleftea14912252–31+2131
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda16920555–39+1631
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsMalmo14623345–33+1225
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle15621639–36+323

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • BrynasSkellefteapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
  • FarjestadDjurgardenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.3
  • HV 71Luleapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:34.7
  • IF BjorklovenOrebropreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.1
  • LinkopingRoglepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.9
  • VaxjoTimrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →