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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3)

HV 71 — Lulea

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Model prediction for 12 November

HV 7138%
Draw in regulation23%
Lulea39%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: HV 71 49%, Lulea 51% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 38%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.4.

Facts

  • League table: HV 71 — No. 14, 11 pts; Lulea — No. 7, 20 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
  • HV 71: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: HV 71 2 wins, Lulea 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: HV 71 — Lulea2.4–2.4
HV 71 to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Lulea to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)38%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)62%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap HV 71
  • HV 71 goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

HV 71

  • 31.10away · Malmo2:3 OT
  • 29.10away · Djurgarden0:3
  • 24.10Frolunda2:6
  • 20.10Linkoping2:3 SO
  • 17.10away · Lulea2:5

Lulea

  • 31.10away · Timra3:2 SO
  • 29.10IF Bjorkloven4:0
  • 24.10Djurgarden2:3 OT
  • 22.10away · Vaxjo1:2
  • 17.10HV 715:2

Head to head

  • 17.10.2026Lulea — HV 715:2
  • 31.01.2026HV 71 — Lulea2:1
  • 06.01.2026Lulea — HV 715:6 OT
  • 22.11.2025HV 71 — Lulea1:2
  • 09.10.2025Lulea — HV 713:2 SO

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsOrebro14612533–41-822
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea14513536–37-120
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDjurgarden15432633–41-820
13, Relegation play-offLinkoping14311927–51-2412
14, Relegation play-offHV 7114124733–51-1811

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • BrynasSkellefteapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
  • FarjestadDjurgardenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.3
  • FrolundaMalmopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • IF BjorklovenOrebropreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.1
  • LinkopingRoglepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.9
  • VaxjoTimrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →