Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 13 November, 19:30 (UTC+3)

Hameenlinna — Jukurit

Model prediction for 13 November

Hameenlinna38%

Draw in regulation24%

Jukurit38%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Hameenlinna 50%, Jukurit 50% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 26%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.0 and 2.0.

Facts

League table: Hameenlinna — No. 14, 24 pts; Jukurit — No. 3, 36 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Hameenlinna 4 wins, Jukurit 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hameenlinna — Jukurit		2.0–2.0
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)		50%
Jukurit to win (incl. OT and shootout)		50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		26%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		74%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Hameenlinna
Hameenlinna goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Hameenlinna

01.11away · Tappara3:0
30.10Kiekko-Espoo1:4
28.10away · Karpat0:1
24.10IFK Helsinki3:6
22.10away · JYP2:3

Jukurit

31.10away · Karpat2:1
28.10Lukko3:4 SO
24.10away · Ilves2:1 SO
23.10Ilves0:3
20.10away · Vaasan Sport3:0

Head to head

01.09.2026Jukurit — Hameenlinna1:4
03.01.2026Hameenlinna — Jukurit3:1
27.09.2025Jukurit — Hameenlinna1:3
30.11.2024Hameenlinna — Jukurit3:0
10.09.2024Jukurit — Hameenlinna7:3

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ilves	20	10	3	1	6	52–39	+13	37
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Jukurit	20	9	4	1	6	49–40	+9	36
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	JYP	17	10	2	1	4	59–48	+11	35
13, Relegation play-off	Pelicans	17	7	1	1	8	40–38	+2	24
14, Relegation play-off	Hameenlinna	20	6	3	0	11	42–55	-13	24
15, Relegation play-off	Vaasan Sport	18	5	1	2	10	33–53	-20	19

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

19:30
KalPaKiekko-Espoopreliminary
4852
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9
19:30
KooKooJYPpreliminary
4654
2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.9
19:30
SaiPaIlvespreliminary
5248
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
19:30
TapparaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
6139
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
19:30
TPS TurkuJokeritpreliminary
6535
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7
20:30
PelicansAssatpreliminary
5644
1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →