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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 13 November, (UTC+3)

Tappara — IFK Helsinki

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Model prediction for 13 November

Tappara49%
Draw in regulation22%
IFK Helsinki29%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Tappara are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • Tappara are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Tappara — No. 10, 28 pts; IFK Helsinki — No. 11, 27 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Last 5 meetings: Tappara 1 win, IFK Helsinki 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tappara — IFK Helsinki2.8–2.2
Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout)61%
IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout)39%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Tappara
  • Tappara goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Tappara

  • 01.11Hameenlinna0:3
  • 30.10Ilves1:2 SO
  • 28.10away · JYP6:4
  • 24.10away · Pelicans4:5 SO
  • 21.10Assat3:0

IFK Helsinki

  • 31.10away · KooKoo3:1
  • 30.10away · Assat2:3
  • 28.10Ilves2:1
  • 24.10away · Hameenlinna6:3
  • 23.10away · Kiekko-Espoo3:0

Head to head

  • 31.01.2026IFK Helsinki — Tappara6:5 SO
  • 16.01.2026Tappara — IFK Helsinki4:5
  • 10.12.2025IFK Helsinki — Tappara6:3
  • 31.10.2025Tappara — IFK Helsinki4:1
  • 01.02.2025IFK Helsinki — Tappara3:2

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku19912753–48+531
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara19723751–46+528
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsIFK Helsinki19714753–56-327
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKalPa18801946–41+525

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaJukuritpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.0
  • KalPaKiekko-Espoopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9
  • KooKooJYPpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.9
  • SaiPaIlvespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
  • TPS TurkuJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • PelicansAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →