Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 13 November, 19:30 (UTC+3)

TPS Turku — Jokerit

Model prediction for 13 November

TPS Turku52%

Draw in regulation22%

Jokerit26%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

TPS Turku are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 38%.

Why

TPS Turku are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.0.

Facts

League table: TPS Turku — No. 9, 31 pts; Jokerit — No. 16, 15 pts. A gap of 16 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: TPS Turku — Jokerit		2.7–2.0
TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout)		65%
Jokerit to win (incl. OT and shootout)		35%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		38%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		62%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap TPS Turku
TPS Turku goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

TPS Turku

30.10Pelicans2:1
28.10away · Kiekko-Espoo4:5 OT
24.10Lukko1:3
23.10away · Lukko1:4
20.10Ilves4:3

Jokerit

31.10away · JYP4:5 OT
30.10away · KalPa1:4
24.10away · KooKoo6:3
17.10away · Ilves3:4 SO
16.10Assat2:4

Head to head

25.09.2026Jokerit — TPS Turku1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Kiekko-Espoo	20	8	2	3	7	61–49	+12	31
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	TPS Turku	19	9	1	2	7	53–48	+5	31
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Tappara	19	7	2	3	7	51–46	+5	28
15, Relegation play-off	Vaasan Sport	18	5	1	2	10	33–53	-20	19
16, Relegation play-off	Jokerit	18	3	1	4	10	41–62	-21	15
17, Relegation	KooKoo	20	2	1	2	15	46–81	-35	10

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

19:30
HameenlinnaJukuritpreliminary
5050
2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.0
19:30
KalPaKiekko-Espoopreliminary
4852
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9
19:30
KooKooJYPpreliminary
4654
2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.9
19:30
SaiPaIlvespreliminary
5248
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
19:30
TapparaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
6139
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
20:30
PelicansAssatpreliminary
5644
1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →