PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 13 November, (UTC+3)

SaiPa — Ilves

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 13 November

SaiPa40%
Draw in regulation22%
Ilves37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: SaiPa 52%, Ilves 48% including overtime.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.4.

Facts

  • League table: SaiPa — No. 5, 34 pts; Ilves — No. 2, 37 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: SaiPa 2 wins, Ilves 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: SaiPa — Ilves2.5–2.4
SaiPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap SaiPa
  • SaiPa goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

SaiPa

  • 30.10JYP3:6
  • 28.10away · Pelicans0:5
  • 24.10away · Vaasan Sport3:1
  • 23.10away · Vaasan Sport5:3
  • 20.10Karpat2:1 SO

Ilves

  • 31.10KalPa1:0
  • 30.10away · Tappara2:1 SO
  • 28.10away · IFK Helsinki1:2
  • 24.10Jukurit1:2 SO
  • 23.10away · Jukurit3:0

Head to head

  • 30.04.2026SaiPa — Ilves7:2
  • 17.03.2026Ilves — SaiPa4:1
  • 31.10.2025SaiPa — Ilves5:2
  • 01.03.2025SaiPa — Ilves3:6
  • 09.12.2024Ilves — SaiPa2:1 OT

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLukko191131453–36+1740
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit20941649–40+936
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJYP171021459–48+1135
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa18931552–38+1434
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAssat201012746–48-234

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaJukuritpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.0
  • KalPaKiekko-Espoopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9
  • KooKooJYPpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.9
  • TapparaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • TPS TurkuJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • PelicansAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →