Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 13 November, (UTC+3)
KalPa — Kiekko-Espoo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 13 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: KalPa 48%, Kiekko-Espoo 52% including overtime.
4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.5.
Facts
- League table: KalPa — No. 12, 25 pts; Kiekko-Espoo — No. 8, 31 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Kiekko-Espoo: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: KalPa 4 wins, Kiekko-Espoo 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: KalPa — Kiekko-Espoo | 2.4–2.5 | |
| KalPa to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| Kiekko-Espoo to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 42% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap KalPa
- KalPa goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 31.10away · Ilves0:1
- 30.10Jokerit4:1
- 27.10Vaasan Sport5:2
- 24.10away · Karpat5:1
- 23.10away · Karpat2:5
- 31.10away · Pelicans3:0
- 30.10away · Hameenlinna4:1
- 28.10TPS Turku5:4 OT
- 23.10IFK Helsinki0:3
- 21.10KooKoo4:2
Head to head
- 01.09.2026Kiekko-Espoo — KalPa5:1
- 24.02.2026KalPa — Kiekko-Espoo3:2 OT
- 14.01.2026Kiekko-Espoo — KalPa1:2 OT
- 11.10.2025Kiekko-Espoo — KalPa1:2
- 16.09.2025KalPa — Kiekko-Espoo4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Karpat | 20 | 7 | +1 | 33 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Kiekko-Espoo | 20 | 8 | +12 | 31 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | TPS Turku | 19 | 9 | +5 | 31 |
| 11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | IFK Helsinki | 19 | 7 | -3 | 27 |
| 12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | KalPa | 18 | 8 | +5 | 25 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Pelicans | 17 | 7 | +2 | 24 |
Liiga on the same day
- HameenlinnaJukuritpreliminary50502The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.0
- KooKooJYPpreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.9
- SaiPaIlvespreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
- TapparaIFK Helsinkipreliminary61391The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
- TPS TurkuJokeritpreliminary65351The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7
- PelicansAssatpreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →