NHL · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)
Tampa Bay Lightning — Detroit Red Wings
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 4 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Tampa Bay Lightning are clear favourites: 69% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 57%.
Why
- Tampa Bay Lightning are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.3.
Facts
- League table: Tampa Bay Lightning — No. 10, 10 pts; Detroit Red Wings — No. 26, 6 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Tampa Bay Lightning 3 wins, Detroit Red Wings 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning — Detroit Red Wings | 3.4–2.3 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 69% | |
| Detroit Red Wings to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 31% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 57% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 43% |
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Form
- 16.10Seattle Kraken4:3 OT
- 14.10away · New York Rangers1:4
- 11.10away · New York Islanders5:3
- 09.10Minnesota Wild3:2
- 06.10Philadelphia Flyers4:1
- 16.10Philadelphia Flyers2:1
- 14.10New Jersey Devils4:5 OT
- 11.10away · Montreal Canadiens0:1 SO
- 10.10Seattle Kraken3:6
- 07.10Ottawa Senators5:3
Head to head
- 14.04.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Detroit Red Wings4:3 OT
- 13.03.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Detroit Red Wings4:1
- 28.11.2025Detroit Red Wings — Tampa Bay Lightning3:6
- 18.10.2025Detroit Red Wings — Tampa Bay Lightning2:1 OT
- 12.04.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — Detroit Red Wings3:4 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Boston Bruins | 7 | 5 | +10 | 10 |
| 10, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 11, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 8 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 25 | Nashville Predators | 7 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 26 | Detroit Red Wings | 7 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 27 | Chicago Blackhawks | 8 | 3 | -11 | 6 |
NHL on the same day
- Columbus Blue JacketsColorado Avalanchepreliminary44562The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.1
- Montreal CanadiensWinnipeg Jetspreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.4
- New York RangersSt. Louis Bluespreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.2
- Philadelphia FlyersMinnesota Wildpreliminary44562The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.0
- Pittsburgh PenguinsVegas Golden Knightspreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:26.1
- Toronto Maple LeafsUtah Mammothpreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.0
- Washington CapitalsDallas Starspreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.2
- New Jersey DevilsEdmonton Oilerspreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:55.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →