NHL · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)
Washington Capitals — Dallas Stars
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 4 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Washington Capitals 48%, Dallas Stars 52% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.2 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.7.
Facts
- League table: Washington Capitals — No. 16, 8 pts; Dallas Stars — No. 22, 7 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Washington Capitals 1 win, Dallas Stars 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Washington Capitals — Dallas Stars | 2.6–2.7 | |
| Washington Capitals to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| Dallas Stars to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 49% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 51% |
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- Washington Capitals goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 15.10Montreal Canadiens5:4
- 14.10away · Carolina Hurricanes2:4
- 12.10Seattle Kraken3:5
- 10.10New York Rangers3:1
- 08.10Pittsburgh Penguins5:3
- 15.10away · Colorado Avalanche3:2 SO
- 14.10Colorado Avalanche2:3
- 11.10away · Pittsburgh Penguins1:2 SO
- 09.10away · Buffalo Sabres4:0
- 06.10San Jose Sharks5:0
Head to head
- 08.01.2026Washington Capitals — Dallas Stars1:4
- 29.10.2025Dallas Stars — Washington Capitals1:0
- 17.12.2024Dallas Stars — Washington Capitals3:1
- 18.10.2024Washington Capitals — Dallas Stars3:2
- 27.01.2024Dallas Stars — Washington Capitals5:4 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 16, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Washington Capitals | 7 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 17 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 8 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 21 | New York Islanders | 7 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 22 | Dallas Stars | 7 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 23 | St. Louis Blues | 7 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
NHL on the same day
- Columbus Blue JacketsColorado Avalanchepreliminary44562The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.1
- Montreal CanadiensWinnipeg Jetspreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.4
- New York RangersSt. Louis Bluespreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.2
- Philadelphia FlyersMinnesota Wildpreliminary44562The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.0
- Pittsburgh PenguinsVegas Golden Knightspreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:26.1
- Tampa Bay LightningDetroit Red Wingspreliminary69311The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 5:25.7
- Toronto Maple LeafsUtah Mammothpreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.0
- New Jersey DevilsEdmonton Oilerspreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:55.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →