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Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Movistar Arena

Real Madrid — Manresa

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Model prediction and result

120:83Came true
Real Madrid87%
Manresa13%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 120:83: the model's most likely outcome, Real Madrid to win (87% incl. overtime), came true.

Real Madrid are clear favourites: 87% against 13% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 102:89 — 191 point in total.

Over 190.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Real Madrid +5.2, Manresa −4.5 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Real Madrid — Manresa101.8–88.8
Total over 190.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 190.5 (incl. OT)51%

231 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Real Madrid points
  • Manresa points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Real Madrid

  • 08.10Partizan Mozzart Bet86:76
  • 04.10away · Obradoiro CAB114:107
  • 01.10away · Hapoel Tel Aviv98:102
  • 29.09away · Anadolu Efes84:94
  • 27.09Unicaja89:87

Manresa

  • 07.10Ulm101:89
  • 03.10Breogan95:101
  • 30.09away · PAOK78:93
  • 26.09away · Bilbao92:107
  • 29.05Real Madrid94:87

Head to head

  • 29.05.2026Manresa — Real Madrid94:87
  • 26.10.2025Real Madrid — Manresa87:75
  • 18.05.2025Manresa — Real Madrid65:67
  • 27.10.2024Real Madrid — Manresa86:61
  • 31.03.2024Real Madrid — Manresa72:83

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, PlayoffsBaskonia3301.000—
2, PlayoffsReal Madrid3301.000—
3, PlayoffsBreogan3301.000—
17, RelegationJoventut Badalona202.0002.5
18, RelegationManresa303.0003

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • Bahcesehir Kol.Manresa13 October · EuroCup
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 100:88. Model's score: —.169.3
  • Olimpia MilanoReal Madrid13 October · EuroLeague · live
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —175.3

Liga ACB on the same day

  • Obradoiro CABForca Lleida
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 91:89. Model's score: —.184.8
  • MurciaTenerife
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 77:90. Model's score: —.178.6
  • BaskoniaJoventut Badalona
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 93:73. Model's score: —.185.0
  • BilbaoSan Pablo Burgos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:87. Model's score: —.183.4
  • BarcelonaValencia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 89:86. Model's score: —.193.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 87% will not happen in roughly 13 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →