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KHL · Monday, 28 September, MSK · Minsk-Arena

Dinamo Minsk — Lada

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Model prediction and result

5:4Came true
Dinamo Minsk72%
Draw in regulation15%
Lada13%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:4: the model's most likely outcome, Dinamo Minsk to win (82% incl. overtime), came true.

Dinamo Minsk are clear favourites: 82% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • Dinamo Minsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.8 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk — Lada3.8–1.8
Dinamo Minsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)82%
Lada to win (incl. OT and shootout)18%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Dinamo Minsk
  • Dinamo Minsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Dinamo Minsk

  • 26.09away · Shanghai1:2
  • 24.09away · Dynamo Moscow3:4 OT
  • 20.09Yekaterinburg5:3
  • 18.09Novosibirsk4:1
  • 14.09away · Lada2:4

Lada

  • 25.09CSKA Moscow0:5
  • 23.09away · Niznekamsk3:7
  • 21.09away · Bars Kazan2:3 OT
  • 16.09Barys Astana0:6
  • 14.09Dinamo Minsk4:2

Head to head

  • 14.09.2026Lada — Dinamo Minsk4:2
  • 05.02.2026Lada — Dinamo Minsk3:8
  • 21.12.2025Dinamo Minsk — Lada7:2
  • 08.11.2025Dinamo Minsk — Lada0:1
  • 22.10.2025Lada — Dinamo Minsk0:4

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1581646–47-117
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1480654–40+1416
21Sochi14301119–49-306
22Lada15141024–59-356

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • YekaterinburgLada30 September · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Dinamo MinskCSKA Moscow1 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.8

KHL on the same day

  • Avangard OmskMagnitogorsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.2
  • Dynamo MoscowTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Nizhny NovgorodSalavat Ufa
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 2:3.4.9
  • ShanghaiSochi
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →