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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Hovet

Djurgarden — Orebro

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Djurgarden40%
Draw in regulation22%
Orebro38%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Djurgarden to win (50% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Djurgarden 50%, Orebro 50% including overtime.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 45%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Djurgarden — Orebro2.6–2.5
Djurgarden to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Orebro to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)45%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)55%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Djurgarden
  • Djurgarden goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Djurgarden

  • 03.10away · Frolunda2:4
  • 01.10Farjestad0:4
  • 26.09away · Timra2:3 OT
  • 24.09Vaxjo4:3 OT
  • 22.09away · Rogle1:3

Orebro

  • 03.10Lulea1:4
  • 01.10away · HV 711:2 OT
  • 26.09Skelleftea3:0
  • 24.09IF Bjorkloven3:4 OT
  • 22.09away · Timra5:1

Head to head

  • 05.03.2026Orebro — Djurgarden4:1
  • 08.01.2026Djurgarden — Orebro3:4
  • 23.10.2025Djurgarden — Orebro5:3
  • 30.09.2025Orebro — Djurgarden4:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle8310420–18+211
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsOrebro8302318–22-411
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMalmo7212218–22-410
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59
11Djurgarden8211416–22-69
12HV 718121424–29-58

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • DjurgardenLinkoping10 October · SHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 5:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • OrebroVaxjo10 October · SHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 2:3.5.1

SHL on the same day

  • BrynasIF Bjorkloven
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
  • LuleaMalmo
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • RogleHV 71
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:1.5.0
  • SkellefteaFarjestad
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:2.5.2
  • TimraFrolunda
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.6
  • VaxjoLinkoping
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →