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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Skellefteå Kraft Arena

Skelleftea — Farjestad

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Model prediction and result

1:5Missed
Skelleftea50%
Draw in regulation21%
Farjestad29%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:5: the model's most likely outcome, Skelleftea to win (62% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 62% fails in about 38 matches out of 100 on average.

Skelleftea are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • Skelleftea are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Skelleftea — Farjestad2.9–2.3
Skelleftea to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
Farjestad to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Skelleftea
  • Skelleftea goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Skelleftea

  • 03.10away · Timra4:1
  • 01.10Malmo4:3 OT
  • 29.09Lulea6:1
  • 26.09away · Orebro0:3
  • 24.09away · HV 713:4 OT

Farjestad

  • 03.10HV 713:1
  • 01.10away · Djurgarden4:0
  • 26.09away · IF Bjorkloven5:0
  • 24.09Rogle2:1
  • 22.09away · Frolunda2:3 SO

Head to head

  • 21.02.2026Skelleftea — Farjestad6:2
  • 03.01.2026Farjestad — Skelleftea2:6
  • 23.10.2025Farjestad — Skelleftea3:2 SO
  • 18.09.2025Skelleftea — Farjestad2:5
  • 31.03.2025Skelleftea — Farjestad2:1 OT

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFarjestad8701034–8+2622
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda8510226–20+617
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIF Bjorkloven8510222–20+217
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSkelleftea8411228–21+715
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsBrynas8400423–18+512

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • FarjestadMalmo10 October · SHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 6:2. Model's score: 3:1.5.2
  • SkellefteaRogle10 October · SHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8

SHL on the same day

  • BrynasIF Bjorkloven
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
  • DjurgardenOrebro
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.1
  • LuleaMalmo
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • RogleHV 71
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:1.5.0
  • TimraFrolunda
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.6
  • VaxjoLinkoping
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →