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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Helsinki Ice Hall

IFK Helsinki — KalPa

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Model prediction and result

6:1Missed
IFK Helsinki37%
Draw in regulation22%
KalPa40%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 6:1: the model's most likely outcome, KalPa to win (52% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 52% fails in about 48 matches out of 100 on average.

Close to a coin flip: IFK Helsinki 48%, KalPa 52% including overtime.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.5.
  • KalPa: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: IFK Helsinki — KalPa2.4–2.5
IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
KalPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap IFK Helsinki
  • IFK Helsinki goals
  • Overtime chance
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Form

IFK Helsinki

  • 08.10away · Jokerit2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · Vaasan Sport3:2 OT
  • 26.09away · Pelicans1:2
  • 25.09JYP3:4
  • 23.09Karpat3:1

KalPa

  • 09.10Tappara2:3
  • 03.10away · Jukurit1:2 OT
  • 02.10SaiPa4:3
  • 26.09Lukko1:2
  • 23.09away · KooKoo5:4

Head to head

  • 26.03.2026KalPa — IFK Helsinki3:2 OT
  • 24.03.2026IFK Helsinki — KalPa1:4
  • 23.03.2026IFK Helsinki — KalPa1:0 OT
  • 21.03.2026KalPa — IFK Helsinki1:4
  • 20.03.2026KalPa — IFK Helsinki4:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213
14, Relegation play-offIFK Helsinki11312531–34-313
15, Relegation play-offVaasan Sport11312520–31-1113

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • IFK HelsinkiTPS Turku14 October · Liiga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • KalPaAssat14 October · Liiga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaKooKoo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.1
  • JokeritIlves
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:3.4.9
  • JukuritKarpat
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 3:2.5.0
  • TapparaTPS Turku
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.5.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →