VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK
Krasnoyarsk — Toros Neftekamsk
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2:0Missed
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Toros Neftekamsk to win (51% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Close to a coin flip: Krasnoyarsk 49%, Toros Neftekamsk 51% including overtime.
4.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 31%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Krasnoyarsk — Toros Neftekamsk | 2.2–2.2 | |
| Krasnoyarsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Toros Neftekamsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 31% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 69% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Krasnoyarsk
- Krasnoyarsk goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Izhevsk3:2
- 09.10Olympia3:4
- 03.10away · Kristall Saratov2:3
- 01.10away · Dizel0:2
- 29.09away · Tambov4:5
Head to head
- 21.01.2026Toros Neftekamsk — Krasnoyarsk3:2 OT
- 30.10.2025Krasnoyarsk — Toros Neftekamsk4:3 OT
- 16.01.2025Toros Neftekamsk — Krasnoyarsk4:1
- 06.11.2024Krasnoyarsk — Toros Neftekamsk6:2
- 04.02.2024Krasnoyarsk — Toros Neftekamsk5:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16, Playoffs | Magnitka Magnitogorsk | 11 | 5 | +4 | 14 |
| 17 | Toros Neftekamsk | 13 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | Ryazan | 15 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 28 | Izhevsk | 13 | 3 | -11 | 8 |
| 29 | Krasnoyarsk | 14 | 4 | -13 | 8 |
| 30 | Chelmet Chelyabinsk | 11 | 3 | -24 | 8 |
Next matches
- KrasnoyarskPerm15 October · VHL44562The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
- Metallurg NovokuznetskToros Neftekamsk15 October · VHL77231The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:14.6
VHL on the same day
- 58421The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:1.4.4
- 80201The most likely outcome came true: 118%3:2SOFinal score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- 70301The most likely outcome came true: 120%7:1Final score 7:1. Model's score: 3:1.5.1
- 49512The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 1:2.4.1
- 79211The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.1
- 63371The most likely outcome came true: 122%3:2OTFinal score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →