Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Friday, 30 October, 19:30 MSK

Plzen — Trinec

Model prediction for 30 October

Plzen40%

Draw in regulation23%

Trinec36%

Model estimate at 17:35 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Plzen 52%, Trinec 48% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.4 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 32%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.3 and 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Plzen — Trinec		2.3–2.1
Plzen to win (incl. OT and shootout)		52%
Trinec to win (incl. OT and shootout)		48%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		32%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		68%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Plzen
Plzen goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Plzen

11.10away · Kometa Brno2:1 OT
08.10Ceske Budejovice4:1
04.10away · Karlovy Vary1:4
02.10away · Pardubice2:4
29.09away · Mlada Boleslav4:1

Trinec

11.10away · Pardubice4:5 OT
09.10Mountfield HK5:2
04.10away · Olomouc9:0
02.10Litvinov3:2
29.09Kladno6:4

Head to head

19.09.2026Trinec — Plzen3:2
20.01.2026Plzen — Trinec2:1 SO
19.12.2025Trinec — Plzen2:1 OT
26.10.2025Plzen — Trinec1:2 SO
19.09.2025Trinec — Plzen2:1 OT

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Trinec	10	9	0	1	0	49–23	+26	28
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Pardubice	11	8	1	0	2	47–31	+16	26
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Karlovy Vary	9	6	0	0	3	22–16	+6	18
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Plzen	10	3	3	1	3	25–22	+3	16
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Mountfield HK	10	4	2	0	4	28–26	+2	16

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Czech Extraliga on the same day

19:30
LitvinovVitkovicepreliminary
5545
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
19:30
Mlada BoleslavSparta Praguepreliminary
3565
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.6
20:00
Karlovy VaryPardubicepreliminary
4357
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
20:00
KladnoLiberecpreliminary
4852
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.0
20:00
OlomoucCeske Budejovicepreliminary
4456
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →