English Premier League, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
AFC Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
AFC Bournemouth are clear favourites: 47% against 24% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AFC Bournemouth are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- AFC Bournemouth are 205 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: AFC Bournemouth — No. 8, 12 pts; Nottingham Forest — No. 19, 6 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- AFC Bournemouth: 5 wins in a row; Nottingham Forest: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: AFC Bournemouth 2 wins, Nottingham Forest 0, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| AFC Bournemouth not to lose | 76% | |
| Nottingham Forest not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth goals
- Nottingham Forest goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | AFC Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 2.09 | 1.50 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.87 | 1.12 |
| Shots | 16.1 | 16.0 |
| On target | 5.5 | 3.4 |
| Corners | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Cards | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 48 |
Form
- 31.10Leeds United2:0
- 28.10Aston Villa3:0
- 25.10away · Manchester United3:0
- 22.10Milan3:0
- 18.10Sunderland2:0
- 31.10away · Brentford0:2
- 23.10away · Ipswich Town1:1
- 18.10Arsenal0:1
- 11.10away · Crystal Palace1:3
- 19.09Coventry City0:1
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Nottingham Forest — AFC Bournemouth1:1
- 26.10.2025AFC Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest2:0
- 25.01.2025AFC Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest5:0
- 17.08.2024Nottingham Forest — AFC Bournemouth1:1
- 04.02.2024AFC Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Everton | 9 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 18, Relegation | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | -12 | 7 |
| 19, Relegation | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | -6 | 6 |
| 20, Relegation | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | -10 | 5 |
Premier League on the same day
- Manchester CityFulhampreliminary6821111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- Aston VillaSunderlandpreliminary4530251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- ChelseaLeeds Unitedpreliminary5026231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Coventry CityCrystal Palacepreliminary343235XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
- Tottenham HotspurIpswich Townpreliminary6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Newcastle UnitedArsenalpreliminary1925572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →