English Premier League, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Coventry City — Crystal Palace
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Coventry City 34%, Crystal Palace 35%, draw 32%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Crystal Palace are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Coventry City are 115 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Coventry City — No. 16, 9 pts; Crystal Palace — No. 18, 7 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Coventry City — Crystal Palace What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Coventry City not to lose | 65% | |
| Crystal Palace not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Coventry City
- Coventry City goals
- Crystal Palace goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Coventry City | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| xG per match | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.56 | 1.76 |
| Shots | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| On target | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 42 | 43 |
Form
- 31.10Sunderland3:1
- 24.10Fulham0:1
- 19.10away · Tottenham Hotspur1:3
- 12.10Newcastle United4:1
- 19.09away · Nottingham Forest1:0
- 31.10away · Tottenham Hotspur0:2
- 28.10away · Fulham1:0
- 25.10Newcastle United0:2
- 22.10away · Beşiktaş2:2
- 18.10away · Brighton & Hove Albion0:5
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Coventry City | 9 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | -5 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | -12 | 7 |
| 19, Relegation | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | -6 | 6 |
Premier League on the same day
- Manchester CityFulhampreliminary6821111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- AFC BournemouthNottingham Forestpreliminary4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Aston VillaSunderlandpreliminary4530251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- ChelseaLeeds Unitedpreliminary5026231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Tottenham HotspurIpswich Townpreliminary6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Newcastle UnitedArsenalpreliminary1925572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →