English Premier League, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Aston Villa — Sunderland
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Aston Villa are slightly stronger: 45% against 25%, draw 30%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Aston Villa are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Aston Villa are 215 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Aston Villa — No. 10, 12 pts; Sunderland — No. 20, 5 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Last 2 meetings: Aston Villa 1 win, Sunderland 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aston Villa — Sunderland What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Aston Villa not to lose | 75% | |
| Sunderland not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Aston Villa
- Aston Villa goals
- Sunderland goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Aston Villa | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xG per match | 1.73 | 1.85 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Shots | 15.9 | 15.0 |
| On target | 5.7 | 4.6 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 49 |
Form
- 03.11away · Barcelona0:3
- 31.10Fulham1:1
- 28.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:3
- 24.10Manchester City2:1
- 21.10Viking3:1
- 31.10away · Coventry City1:3
- 28.10Brentford3:2
- 25.10Leeds United0:0
- 22.10away · Lech Poznań1:1
- 18.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:2
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Aston Villa — Sunderland4:3
- 21.09.2025Sunderland — Aston Villa1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Hull City | 9 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 19, Relegation | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | -6 | 6 |
| 20, Relegation | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | -10 | 5 |
Premier League on the same day
- Manchester CityFulhampreliminary6821111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- AFC BournemouthNottingham Forestpreliminary4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- ChelseaLeeds Unitedpreliminary5026231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Coventry CityCrystal Palacepreliminary343235XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
- Tottenham HotspurIpswich Townpreliminary6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Newcastle UnitedArsenalpreliminary1925572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →