English Premier League, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Newcastle United — Arsenal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Arsenal are clear favourites: 57% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Arsenal are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Arsenal are 178 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Newcastle United — No. 13, 11 pts; Arsenal — No. 1, 24 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
- Arsenal: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Newcastle United 2 wins, Arsenal 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Newcastle United — Arsenal What is xG? | 1.0–1.8 | |
| Newcastle United not to lose | 43% | |
| Arsenal not to lose | 81% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Newcastle United
- Newcastle United goals
- Arsenal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Newcastle United | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 1.27 | 1.64 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.52 | 1.02 |
| Shots | 15.3 | 14.2 |
| On target | 4.0 | 4.7 |
| Corners | 6.3 | 5.1 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 60 |
Form
- 02.11Everton0:1
- 29.10away · Everton1:3
- 25.10away · Crystal Palace2:0
- 17.10Aston Villa0:1
- 12.10away · Coventry City1:4
- 01.11away · Liverpool1:0
- 27.10away · Fleetwood Town1:1
- 24.10Everton2:0
- 21.10away · Bayern München2:2
- 18.10away · Nottingham Forest1:0
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Arsenal — Newcastle United1:0
- 28.09.2025Newcastle United — Arsenal1:2
- 18.05.2025Arsenal — Newcastle United1:0
- 05.02.2025Newcastle United — Arsenal2:0
- 07.01.2025Arsenal — Newcastle United0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | +9 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | +10 | 21 |
| 12 | Leeds United | 9 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle United | 9 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
Premier League on the same day
- Manchester CityFulhampreliminary6821111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- AFC BournemouthNottingham Forestpreliminary4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Aston VillaSunderlandpreliminary4530251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- ChelseaLeeds Unitedpreliminary5026231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Coventry CityCrystal Palacepreliminary343235XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
- Tottenham HotspurIpswich Townpreliminary6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →