English Premier League, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Chelsea — Leeds United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Chelsea are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Chelsea are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Chelsea are 107 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Chelsea — No. 4, 16 pts; Leeds United — No. 12, 11 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Leeds United: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Chelsea 3 wins, Leeds United 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chelsea — Leeds United What is xG? | 1.8–1.2 | |
| Chelsea not to lose | 77% | |
| Leeds United not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Chelsea
- Chelsea goals
- Leeds United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Chelsea | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.50 | 1.53 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.61 | 1.46 |
| Shots | 13.4 | 12.4 |
| On target | 5.8 | 4.1 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 49 |
Form
- 31.10Manchester United2:0
- 28.10away · Liverpool1:1
- 24.10Tottenham Hotspur0:2
- 17.10away · Everton2:0
- 10.10AFC Bournemouth5:1
- 31.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:2
- 25.10away · Sunderland0:0
- 18.10Manchester United1:1
- 10.10away · Arsenal1:2
- 20.09Crystal Palace0:0
Head to head
- 09.09.2026Chelsea — Leeds United6:3
- 26.04.2026Chelsea — Leeds United1:0
- 10.02.2026Chelsea — Leeds United2:2
- 03.12.2025Leeds United — Chelsea3:1
- 28.02.2024Chelsea — Leeds United3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | +17 | 19 |
| 4, Champions League | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | +4 | 16 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 11 | Hull City | 9 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Leeds United | 9 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle United | 9 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
Premier League on the same day
- Manchester CityFulhampreliminary6821111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- AFC BournemouthNottingham Forestpreliminary4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Aston VillaSunderlandpreliminary4530251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Coventry CityCrystal Palacepreliminary343235XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
- Tottenham HotspurIpswich Townpreliminary6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Newcastle UnitedArsenalpreliminary1925572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →