English Premier League, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Manchester City — Fulham
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Manchester City are clear favourites: 68% against 11% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Manchester City are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- Manchester City are 300 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Manchester City — No. 2, 21 pts; Fulham — No. 15, 9 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Manchester City 5 wins, Fulham 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Manchester City — Fulham What is xG? | 2.2–0.9 | |
| Manchester City not to lose | 89% | |
| Fulham not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Manchester City
- Manchester City goals
- Fulham goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Manchester City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 2.04 | 1.65 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.34 | 1.29 |
| Shots | 16.3 | 14.1 |
| On target | 5.6 | 4.5 |
| Corners | 6.0 | 6.3 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 60 | 59 |
Form
- 31.10Brighton & Hove Albion0:1
- 28.10Brighton & Hove Albion2:2
- 24.10away · Aston Villa1:2
- 20.10AEK Athens5:1
- 17.10Ipswich Town3:2
- 31.10away · Aston Villa1:1
- 28.10Crystal Palace0:1
- 24.10away · Coventry City1:0
- 17.10Hull City1:0
- 10.10away · Ipswich Town1:2
Head to head
- 11.02.2026Manchester City — Fulham3:0
- 02.12.2025Fulham — Manchester City4:5
- 25.05.2025Fulham — Manchester City0:2
- 05.10.2024Manchester City — Fulham3:2
- 11.05.2024Fulham — Manchester City0:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | +9 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | +10 | 21 |
| 3, Champions League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | +17 | 19 |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Coventry City | 9 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
Premier League on the same day
- AFC BournemouthNottingham Forestpreliminary4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Aston VillaSunderlandpreliminary4530251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- ChelseaLeeds Unitedpreliminary5026231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Coventry CityCrystal Palacepreliminary343235XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
- Tottenham HotspurIpswich Townpreliminary6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Newcastle UnitedArsenalpreliminary1925572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →