Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 4 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Atlético — Casa Pia AC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Casa Pia AC are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Casa Pia AC are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Casa Pia AC are 99 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético — Casa Pia AC What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| Atlético not to lose | 50% | |
| Casa Pia AC not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético
- Atlético goals
- Casa Pia AC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
Form
- 30.10Sporting CP0:2
- 24.10away · Estrela da Amadora2:0
- 18.10away · Alpendorada1:0
- 10.10Santa Clara0:1
- 20.09away · Estoril2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Taca de Portugal on the same day
- MafraAroucapreliminary916742The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
- AVS Futebol SADTondelapreliminary4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- MarítimoChavespreliminary3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Sporting CPUnião Serrapreliminary97201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 5:05.3
- EstorilFelgueiras 1932preliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Vitória de GuimarãesBragapreliminary2626482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →