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Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 4 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

AVS Futebol SAD — Tondela

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Model prediction for 21 November

AVS Futebol SAD40%
Draw27%
Tondela33%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: AVS Futebol SAD 40%, Tondela 33%, draw 27%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • AVS Futebol SAD are 118 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 2 meetings: AVS Futebol SAD 0 wins, Tondela 0, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: AVS Futebol SAD — Tondela What is xG?1.4–1.3
AVS Futebol SAD not to lose67%
Tondela not to lose60%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.552%
Total under 2.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap AVS Futebol SAD
  • AVS Futebol SAD goals
  • Tondela goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAVS Futebol SADTondela
Goals scored per match0.90.8
Goals conceded per match1.01.7
xG per match1.060.99
Opponents’ xG1.961.51
Shots12.010.3
On target3.23.1
Corners3.74.1
Cards2.42.2
Possession, %3548

Averages per match: AVS Futebol SAD — the last 10, Tondela — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

AVS Futebol SAD

  • 17.10Moreirense1:0
  • 20.09away · Sintrense2:0
  • 16.05away · Moreirense0:0
  • 10.05FC Porto3:1
  • 02.05away · Nacional2:1

Tondela

  • 18.10Alverca2:0
  • 19.09away · Imortal5:1
  • 16.05away · Arouca1:3
  • 11.05Moreirense2:0
  • 03.05away · Casa Pia AC1:0

Head to head

  • 21.03.2026Tondela — AVS Futebol SAD0:0
  • 02.11.2025AVS Futebol SAD — Tondela2:2

Taca de Portugal on the same day

  • AtléticoCasa Pia ACpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.8
  • MafraAroucapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
  • MarítimoChavespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
  • Sporting CPUnião Serrapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 5:05.3
  • EstorilFelgueiras 1932preliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • Vitória de GuimarãesBragapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →