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Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 4 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Vitória de Guimarães — Braga

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Model prediction for 21 November

Vitória de Guimarães26%
Draw26%
Braga48%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Braga are clear favourites: 48% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Braga are 97 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Vitória de Guimarães 1 win, Braga 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Vitória de Guimarães — Braga What is xG?1.1–1.6
Vitória de Guimarães not to lose52%
Braga not to lose74%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Vitória de Guimarães
  • Vitória de Guimarães goals
  • Braga goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatVitória de GuimarãesBraga
Goals scored per match1.01.1
Goals conceded per match1.01.2
xG per match1.531.39
Opponents’ xG0.940.88
Shots16.914.9
On target4.34.5
Corners5.55.1
Cards2.72.1
Possession, %5460

Averages per match: Vitória de Guimarães — the last 10, Braga — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Vitória de Guimarães

  • 02.11away · Gil Vicente0:0
  • 23.10Marítimo5:0
  • 17.10away · ACDR Lamelas1:0
  • 11.10away · Benfica0:2
  • 20.09Moreirense1:1

Braga

  • 01.11Famalicão3:0
  • 25.10away · Nacional0:1
  • 22.10Gent2:0
  • 19.10Gil Vicente1:2
  • 15.10away · FC København0:3

Head to head

  • 31.08.2026Braga — Vitória de Guimarães1:0
  • 21.02.2026Braga — Vitória de Guimarães3:2
  • 20.09.2025Vitória de Guimarães — Braga1:1
  • 16.02.2025Vitória de Guimarães — Braga0:0
  • 15.09.2024Braga — Vitória de Guimarães0:2

Full record: 21 meetings →

Taca de Portugal on the same day

  • AtléticoCasa Pia ACpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.8
  • MafraAroucapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
  • AVS Futebol SADTondelapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • MarítimoChavespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
  • Sporting CPUnião Serrapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 5:05.3
  • EstorilFelgueiras 1932preliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →