Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 4 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Mafra — Arouca
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Arouca are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 16%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Arouca are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Arouca are 332 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Arouca: 4 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Mafra — Arouca What is xG? | 0.8–2.5 | |
| Mafra not to lose | 26% | |
| Arouca not to lose | 91% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Mafra
- Mafra goals
- Arouca goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
Form
- 18.10Santa Clara3:2
- 19.09Tirsense2:2
- 21.09away · Celoricense0:1
- 19.10away · Oliveira Hospital0:1
- 21.09away · Olímpico Montijo2:1
- 01.11Nacional1:0
- 24.10away · Alverca1:0
- 18.10away · CF Os Belenenses4:3
- 11.10Estrela da Amadora1:0
- 19.09away · Sporting CP2:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Taca de Portugal on the same day
- AtléticoCasa Pia ACpreliminary2425502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.8
- AVS Futebol SADTondelapreliminary4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- MarítimoChavespreliminary3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Sporting CPUnião Serrapreliminary97201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 5:05.3
- EstorilFelgueiras 1932preliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Vitória de GuimarãesBragapreliminary2626482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →